Some thoughts on the Metaverse a few days after Facebook's (Meta’s) announcement at Facebook Connect 2021. Metaverses have been a topic for many years but Facebook detailing their vision brings the topic into the consumer mainstream discussion. It’s still early days and I’m still developing my thoughts so I’m interested in hearing what you think or see, especially if it’s different.

Inevitability

The Metaverse or "Embodied Internet" is inevitable. Consider how enthralled we are with the digital parts of our lives (Instagram, WhatsApp, etc.) and then consider how basic those experiences still are.

Small, flat 2D screens is how we experience our digital lives. The Metaverse brings physicality to those experiences and will make them much more compelling.

Anyone who has experienced even early VR knows the powerful sense of being it creates. Add to that people you know, admire, or care about and it’s an experience that will draw us in even deeper.

People will resist as we always do with new technology (remember the outrage over GPS tracking in phones) but convenience, entertainment, and money always persuade us. The best approach is trying to steer it where we want, not stop it. 

The Internet was just the prototype

Sending text, images, and videos through the Internet changed the way we communicate, but we'll look back in a decade and see it was nothing compared to what the Metaverse becomes. The social Internet was just the prototype.

Adding presence to our online lives will make them feel richer. We'll consider time in the Metaverse with friends and family as time well spent when we can't get together in person. The Metaverse will be the true first version of the social internet.

Another Internet?

The Internet was something completely new and conceptually foreign – most people didn't understand it. The Metaverse will be easily understood because it's an extension of what we already know.

We'll still do the same things (game, work, learn, hangout) but the addition of tangible and physical spaces with infinite creative possibility will create the conditions for unknowable emergent creativity.

The Metaverse is paradoxically an incremental change to the Internet but could change the world many times more.

Stigma

Something that only made a handful of appearances in the Facebook Connect keynote was a VR headset on someone's face. All clips showing experiences were either 1st person or using CG to simulate. That's because the headset is weird.

Most people won't join the Metaverse in any serious way until AR glasses become widely available and look good. Even then, all but the youngest generation and enthusiasts will feel strange about wearing a computer on their face.

That's why Facebook's first product, Horizon Workrooms, is focussed on work and uses VR, not AR. The technology is already far along and it's used in the privacy of people's homes or offices.

Facebook dominant again?

It’s an open question whether metaverses will play out like social networks: one dominant (Facebook) and many smaller (Twitter, Snap, etc.). Facebook’s dominance came from their early acquisitions which are unlikely to happen again.

It seems natural that metaverses will be added to existing social networks or communities (like a game) and also emerge from scratch 

Facebook’s continued dominance depends on whether they can bring existing users into their metaverse. Here’s where their tarnished brand and older demographics will hurt them. Hosting unique experiences like Rival Peak will be key.

Ingredients 

Facebook (Meta) has all the necessary ingredients to build the biggest Metaverse: VR/AR hardware R&D, success building social networks, and huge amounts of money.

Social networks will be key because the Metaverse will be focused on people interacting. Both Apple and Google have famously failed at social networks (see Ping and Google Plus) and Amazon and Microsoft haven't even tried.

Google and Microsoft are positioned to create compelling products around the social network of work. Apple will create excellent hardware and rely on developers to build metaverses on top of the App Store so they can take their cut.

Facebook is in the best position to build a breakthrough Metaverse by creating on-ramps from their existing social networks but the move from experiences on screens to experiences in worlds could give other co’s a chance to leapfrog in.

Dark horses

Gaming companies might leapfrog traditional tech companies in a move to metaverses. Building metaverse experiences will be similar to building game ones, and large player bases are effectively social networks. Many game companies also already support VR.

The difficulty miniaturizing components into glasses means AR metaverses will follow much later than VR ones. Zuckerberg said as much in his keynote.

Snap will be a serious contender in the Metaverse. They have chops with social networks and have been investing in AR hardware a long time. They also have a strong brand.

Facebook's strengths

Facebook's 2014 Oculus acquisition puts them in a strong position to figure out what makes a compelling Metaverse. It allows them to test & iterate in the real world. You can’t test large scale social behaviours in a lab.

Hardware geniuses like John Carmack are a huge advantage for Facebook too. Miniaturization depends on hardware+software integration (see the iPhone) and Carmack is known for squeezing a lot out of hardware. 

Interoperability

Will different Metaverses be free to interoperate like websites on the Internet do today, or will they become closed systems like messaging apps have? Zucks thinks the former, I think the latter.

The Internet was a "0 to 1" invention to use Peter Thiel’s terminology; the Metaverse is "1 to n" – i.e. it's not completely new. This is important bc the same business dynamics that applied in the internet will also apply in the Metaverse. 

Early messaging apps were interoperable (IRC, email) but when companies saw how sticky a good chat app was (think AOL, BBM) they wanted to take advantage of that for themselves. Owning a Metaverse will be equally valuable.

Every company will want to control their own metaverse because people will spend huge amounts of time there and attention can be monetized. It's also zero-sum so people in your metaverse won't be sitting in your competitor's one.

Facebook's encouragement of interoperability is self-interest. They only benefit from the Metaverse ecosystem growing faster. Tesla did the same thing when they opened up their Supercharger patents to boost electric car adoption.

Metaverse interoperability will be minimal. Some elements will be able to move from one Metaverse to another but free-flowing, borderless movement is unlikely because there's too much to gain to keep people on yours.

People will curate their presence on a few Metaverses, similar to how they behave on social networks today. One or two get most of their attention, a few get some, and many get it rarely.

Negatives

Society's adjustment to the Metaverse will be harder than the adjustment to the Internet. 

The Internet was about information and it's biggest problem has been influence by fake information. The Metaverse is about places, it's problem will be influence by fake places (i.e. spending too much time there).

The potential for a Ready Player One world where people prefer to live online is a real possibility. "Why would I ever leave" is a real thought that comes to mind when people try VR and the Metaverse will be much more compelling than that.

Facebook needs to be watched carefully as they build out their Metaverse. The concerns and promises to act in the public's best interest have always lost out to growth and profits. There's no reason to think this time will be any different.

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The Metaverse is one of the most interesting areas in consumer tech for a long time. It feels like the early Web 2.0 days but with more advanced technology and a more complex social and cultural landscape. These will be interesting times.