Apple's new Vision Pro hit the internet a couple days ago giving us the first glimpses into what Apple believes is a new paradigm in computing: their so-called “spatial computing”.

James Cameron said about the Vision Pro, “I think it’s not evolutionary; it’s revolutionary.” Tech journalist and enthusiast Om Malik said, “It’s incredible! You can feel a vibration in the universe!” Apple blogger John Gruber said, “Vision Pro and VisionOS feel like they’ve been pulled forward in time from the future.”

The praise from people who have tried the Vision Pro is universal — all minds are blown! But the reactions until now are mainly to the technology itself (and how impressive it is compared to anything experienced before) because until today, no one except for those in carefully controlled Apple demos has had the chance to use the Vision Pro in their daily lives.

The Verge’s review is the best one I've seen. Reviewer Nilay Patel is a camera and display nerd and provides a just-technical-enough description of the Vision Pro experience. He articulates the ways in which the tech is impressive, but also how it falls short. He talks about how the eye-tracking isn't as precise as the interface sometimes requires it to be; about the black borders around the field of view; and the blurring of text in certain light conditions. He says, “Vision Pro reminds you you are looking at reality on a screen, not actual reality.”

As AI progresses, creating convincing simulations becomes increasingly possible but for how long will they be compelling. Chatbots like ChatGPT can mimic human conversation, but can they truly understand and connect? Similar questions haunt the Vision Pro. Will its initial technological "wow factor" fade, leaving behind a device lying around houses mainly used for watching shows and light productivity. This post delves deeper into the Vision Pro's potential and pitfalls, exploring whether it lives up to the hype or represents a significant miscalculation by Tim Cook, perhaps one that Steve Jobs wouldn't have made.

The invisible impressiveness of human perception

Nilay Patel's observation about the Vision Pro being a "reality on a screen" struck a chord because it reminded me of a powerful quote from VR pioneer Jaron Lanier.

He said: "The most vivid experience of Virtual Reality is the experience of leaving it. Because after having been in the reality that is manmade, with all the limitations and relative lack of mystery inherent in that, to behold nature … is beholding a beauty that's intense in a way that just could never have been perceived before we had something to compare physical reality to."

Lanier's words highlight that our incredible perceptions are usually imperceptible to us. We take for granted how sharp our vision is, how fast our focus is, the amount of colours we see, and how easily we coordinate our hands and eyes together. This effortless experience in the real world may be the Vision Pro's competition every time you take it off.

From The Verge again: “The first time you use hand and eye tracking it’s awe-inspiring. The next few times you use hand and eye tracking, it stops feeling like a superpower, and in some cases it actively makes the Vision Pro harder to use, because forcing you to look at what you want to control is actually really distracting.”

The best technology feels like an extension of our bodies. Most technology literally still is: tapping on keyboards or touchscreens, moving mice around etc. We are touching things with our hands. The Vision Pro is the first computer whose main input method depends purely on interpretation, not interaction. The screens interpret the room and reproduce it the best they can, and the cameras watch our hand movements and interpret what they think they’re doing and when our intention is clicking a button. There is no physical contact.

This turns the difficulty dial to '11' for Apple because they're trying to simulate systems that nature has been tuning for millions of years and are incredibly sensitive to weirdness. A slight echo in a video call makes it hard to speak, a millisecond difference between what our eyes see and brain perceives makes us queasy, a slight stiffness in the face of a computer-generated character makes us uneasy. Apple can improve these aspects but it's possible that even 99% perfect may not be enough to make all-day life in a VR headset appealing to many.

The laptop is undefeated

While the Vision Pro's hand and eye-tracking might be fine for casual tasks like watching movies or browsing the web, Apple positions it as a revolutionary everyday computer. And dethroning the reigning champion of everyday computing — the laptop — is no easy task. While nature has been perfecting our senses, Apple has been honing the Mac into a formidable tool.

An axiom in product design is that to get people to switch to your product, you have to be 10x better than what they’re already using. For most users, incremental improvements aren't enough to disrupt their workflow. Beyond its initial novelty, the Vision Pro presents some drawbacks for productivity: portability suffers due to its bulky form, battery life pales in comparison, typing is slower, and apps still remain confined to windows (albeit very cool floating ones). Add to this the potential for messy hair and awkward public use, and achieving the 10x threshold seems challenging.

Tim Cook's blindspot

So why did Apple position this new product in a way that it may never deliver on its promises? When evaluating the choices of successful leaders like Tim Cook, we need to remember that decisions at Apple's scale involve many factors and often imperfect information. Sometimes the nuances of perspective and life experience can influence judgement.

Tim Cook's operational excellence has undoubtedly been instrumental in Apple's remarkable success since he took over. His ability to understand and optimize complex systems has led to industry-leading supply chains and financial performance. However, there's a potential blindspot when translating those skills to user experience. The intricacies of human emotion, intuition, and the subtle qualities that shape our interactions with technology are not as readily apparent through analytical frameworks.

Steve Jobs, with his background in design, art, and a touch of counterculture, possessed a different kind of genius. He was attuned to the emotional resonance of products, the unspoken needs and desires that drive user behaviour. This empathy was a key ingredient in Apple's most iconic products.

In a Vanity Fair piece, Nick Bilton writes of Cook using an early Vision Pro prototype many years ago: “And he knows right then and there what this all means. Like the universe is telling him something. He knows that this is the future of computing and entertainment and apps and memories, and that this crude apparatus wrapped around his head will change everything. He knows Apple has to make this thing its next product category.”

Sounds a lot like the experience of the early Vision Pro users and it's possible Tim Cook's initial awe surrounding the Vision Pro's technical prowess amplified his enthusiasm for its potential, and may have overshadowed a more nuanced consideration of its integration into daily life. This is not to say the decision to pursue this product category was wrong, but rather that a more nuanced understanding of its limitations may have positioned it differently.

It's also worth noting that product development is not a solitary endeavor. Many talented individuals contribute their expertise, and ultimately, the final outcome rests on a confluence of factors like data, resources, culture, and emotions.

While the Vision Pro's ultimate impact remains to be seen, this episode may offers a valuable reminder about the power of different perspectives, skillsets, and life experiences. It's not just about the impressive tech; it's about understanding how it integrates into the messy, beautiful tapestry of human experience.

I fully expect to be blown away by the Vision Pro. I expect to buy one at some point, maybe even this first generation. I expect it to be the greatest movie viewing experience I’ve ever had, and I can’t wait to watch sports on it, but I think it'll fall short of being the next computing paradigm Apple hopes it to be. It looks more like another iPad-level product — great for entertainment and light productivity — which is fine, except when you’re selling it to customers and investors as much more than that.