Everything old is new again

"Sooner or later, everything old is new again." ~Stephen King

Nokia has just re-released a phone for GenZ and Millennials that was previously marketed at Boomers.

From the Nokia 2660 [press release](https://www.hmdglobal.com/en-US/nokia-8210-2660-5710-t10-press-release) back in 2007:

"Big display, hearing aid compatibility, stellar battery life, and big buttons provide a seamless experience for those who need it the most... confidence-boosting accessibility features mean it is loved by everyone, especially those over 55."

The same phone, released today, from the [press release](https://www.hmdglobal.com/en-US/nokia-2660-flip-new-edition):

"Rear camera for lo-fi Y2K style pictures, battery for weeks, only SMS and calls which is great for a digital detox and of course the classic snake game... consumers are looking to limit their screen time and reconnect with each other, themselves and their surroundings."

What did you carry dad?

So flip phones are back! Younger gens want to unplug and connect more with the people around them. What's unspoken is that they are still on TikTok and Instagram so they must be carrying a second device for media.

Flip phone + 2nd device for media… Sounds a lot like the gear kit of their parents in the early 2000s: Keys, wallet, flip phone, media device (aka. iPod).

Two big inputs to trends are timescale (measured in generations, 20-25 years) and rebellion. Young people rebel against their parents and young people also set the trends. The generational timescale gives us a way to predict what trends might be next.

The two generation rule

In a little more detail…

First, timescale. A more useful way to think about generations is life stages. Each life stage is roughly 20-25 years long: childhood/adolescence, adulthood, midlife, old age. People normally have kids after the first stage, hence the typical 20-25 year generation definition. This timescale is useful because kids always rebel against their parents – a natural and necessary part of the psychological development process – but they don’t rebel against their grandparents.

Grandparents are two generations back and usually spoiled their grandkids; they’re usually perceived as cooler than parents, or at least not threatening, and therefore unnecessary to rebel against. As a result, younger generations will often embrace styles and trends from two generations back (40-50 years) and defy those of their parents a generation ago. Flared jeans, retro sneakers, vintage bikes are all trends from two generations ago.

But Mark, didn’t you say flip phones were from one generation ago, so why are they coming back? Technology is an outlier with trends because unlike fashion, function is equally, if not more important than form. There were no portable phones two generations ago, and having no phone today is not an option, so kids are left to rebel as far as feasible. Where there is little differentiation, the younger generation will aim to maximize it and a flip phone appears to be the limit: maximum rebellion without being completely disconnected from society. Over-ear headphones and wired ear buds also represent a limit – a snub to the middle-age practicality of wireless AirPods without giving up your music.

Predicting trends

Predicting trends is like quantum mechanics, you can never predict exactly what a trend will be, but you can predict an area it might emerge. One exercise is subtracting ~25 years from your current age and recalling that period in your life and culture; then subtracting ~50 and thinking about your parents at that time. These are likely to be the breeding grounds for future trends: those a generation back will be rebelled against, and those two behind will be embraced. As product designers and marketers, these are useful inputs into new ideas and experiments.

I find this all infinitely fascinating – too bad they don’t teach this kind of history in schools. I’d have paid much more attention.